“We’ll make it through this period just like we made it through other periods of uncertainty during my presidency,” Bush said, when explaining that he did not believe the US is headed for recession. I had to laugh.. I’m sorry. Did he say that out loud? I guess if I were the president, I would have ended my sentence at “uncertainty” and called it a day.
According to Wikipedia (sorry), “a recession is a slowdown in a country’s gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year. A recession may involve simultaneous declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as employment, investment, and corporate profits. ”
My guess would be that (from a spending standpoint) the failure of people to spend as much as desired for a healthy economy may have a little to do with rising prices, overextended credit and the sucking dry of wallets due to ridiculously funded (subprime) mortgage loans (thanks to low teaser interest rates, which are now ballooning to 11% and more). People are losing their houses right and left.
People who, for whatever reason, are voluntarily selling their houses, will take losses, due to taking out second mortgages to fund home repairs (eliminating equity) and lower home values (possibly 10% lower than today’s prices in 2009). Banks trying to sell foreclosed homes will take losses, as well. There could be a bank crisis as a result.
“8 million households are already upside-down on their mortgages and …we could see that number go to between 16 million and 24 million by the end of 2009.”
No recession? Really?
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